Cartographic Modeling for Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Summer Urban Heat Island: Kirkuk City as a Case Study

Abstract

This study aims to conduct a spatial analysis of the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon across the neighborhoods of Kirkuk City, along with a temporal analysis spanning two distinct periods (2008 and 2025) during the summer season. This is achieved through illustrative maps that demonstrate the variations in concentration levels and the transitions that occurred, utilizing ArcGIS software. The core problem of the study highlights the impact of climate change on exacerbating the urban heat island phenomenon within the city, particularly during the summer. To fulfill the study’s objectives, satellite imagery from Landsat was utilized, specifically band 6 of Landsat 7 and band 10 of Landsat 8. The study is structured into three main sections: the first section covers the theoretical framework; the second section addresses the concept of cartographic modeling alongside the requirements and procedural steps for deriving Land Surface Temperature (LST) and heat islands; while the third section encompasses the spatiotemporal analysis of the summer surface urban heat island (LST) within the study area. The study reached several key conclusions, most notably that the surface urban heat island in Kirkuk City is primarily located on the outskirts of the city, with its highest concentration during the summer of 2008 observed in the eastern and southern sectors. By 2025, this phenomenon expanded to cover most parts of the city as well as scattered interior pockets. Furthermore, the neighborhoods of Darwaza and Al-Amal Al-Sha'abi recorded the highest temperatures. This spike is attributed to the presence of the "Eternal Fire" in those locations, alongside the topographic elevations in the eastern and northern parts of the study area. The study also demonstrated that the impact of the urban heat island in Kirkuk City intensified significantly in 2025 compared to 2008 during the summer season. This intensification is driven by accelerated urban expansion, the recession of vegetation cover, and the overarching factor of climate change, which has further compounded the urban heat island phenomenon in Kirkuk City.