Geopolitical Risk and Supply Chain Resilience in the African Oil and Gas Sector: China's Belt and Road Expansion as a Determinant of Resilience A Mixed Methods Analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the role of geopolitical dynamics, especially China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), that shape
supply chain resilience in the African Oil and Gas (AOG) industry, thus filling the existing research gap regarding
the lack of an empirical model to examine the resilience frameworks in the context of region-specific geopolitical
risks. In particular, based on a mixed-methodology approach which includes semi-structured interviews
conducted with the supply chain executives and policymakers, and a structured survey of professionals involved
in Chinese- and non-Chinese-backed projects, the paper uses correlation and regression analysis to analyze the
connections between geopolitical risk factors (political instability, trade sanctions, foreign investment instability)
and resilience factors (disruption frequency, recovery time). It has been found out that geopolitical risk is a major
predictor of supply chain fragility in firms not relying on diversified suppliers and lack risk monitoring, while BRI
connected infrastructure projects increase the opportunities for exports and risks of debt and contract-based nature
in Nigeria, Angola, Cameroon and Kenya.By incorporating the use of Chinese-funded infrastructure with supplier
diversification, better government ties, and technological-based tracking systems, firms recovered much quicker
from disruptions. The research is significant to the theory of supply chain risk management by considering
geopolitical threats and participation in the BRI as a main factor of resiliency in an underrepresented area.