AI-Driven Renewable Energy Transitions and Climate Diplomacy: Implications for Global Soft Power and Sustainable Development.

Abstract

The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and renewable energy systems is fundamentally reshaping global climate diplomacy, transforming technological capacity into a new paradigm of "techno-climate diplomacy" and green-digital soft power. While this nexus offers an accelerated pathway to achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13, it simultaneously risks exacerbating global inequalities through a "green-digital divide" and algorithmic colonialism. This study investigates the implications of AI-driven energy transitions on global soft power and sustainable development using an explanatory sequential mixed-methods design. We constructed the novel Techno-Climate Diplomacy and Soft Power Index (TCD-SPI) using panel data (2020–2025) across 145 nations, complemented by a qualitative comparative analysis of four geopolitical archetypes: the European Union, China, the United States, and Pakistan. Results reveal a highly stratified global landscape where leading powers leverage distinct mechanisms, regulatory standard-setting, state-led infrastructure export, and innovation alliances, to project influence. However, the analysis exposes a critical tension: while AI-driven technology transfers significantly accelerate host-nation decarbonization and energy access, they concurrently introduce severe risks of technological lock-in and data sovereignty erosion in the Global South. The paper concludes that sustainable techno-diplomacy must prioritize equitable partnerships over extractive dependencies. We recommend transitioning to collaborative co-development models, establishing binding global data sovereignty frameworks, and reforming climate finance to explicitly fund digital energy infrastructure in vulnerable nations..