By-Election N.20 Sungai Bakap and Malaysian Politics After Ge15: Competition, Dynamics and Implications

Abstract

The political situation and by-elections in Malaysia after the 15th General Election (GE15) have become a crucial barometer for the stability and legitimacy of the Unity Government formed by the cooperation between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Harapan (PH). The by-election for state constituency N.20 Sungai Bakap in Penang is particularly significant because it reversed expectations that the PKR candidate, backed by the Unity Government, would capture the seat from PAS, and instead produced an enlarged majority for Perikatan Nasional (PN). This article analyses the Sungai Bakap by-election as a critical case for understanding post-GE15 political dynamics, focusing on Chinese voter behaviour, the shifting support of young Malay voters and the fragility of the UMNO–PH coalition. The analysis is guided by three research questions: (RQ1) How did economic issues and the cost-of-living shape Chinese voting behaviour in Sungai Bakap? (RQ2) How did tensions within the UMNO–PH partnership affect Malay youth support patterns? (RQ3) To what extent are the concepts of protest voting and civil disobedience useful for explaining voter behaviour in this by-election? Empirically, the article relies on a mixed methods case study design combining official Election Commission (EC) data, field observation, media content and semi-structured interviews with party activists and former party members. Theoretically, it draws on retrospective economic voting, protest/anti-incumbent voting and ethnic bloc voting/party–ethnic linkage. The findings show that: (i) Chinese voters engaged in a form of economic protest voting that resembles civil disobedience at the ballot box; (ii) Malay youths increasingly defected from UMNO and PKR towards PAS due to coalition mismanagement and perceived arrogance of key leaders; and (iii) the “green wave” narrative is less relevant for Chinese voters, who instead prioritised economic and local service delivery issues. The article concludes by discussing the implications for GE16 and for understanding coalition politics and ethnic voting in contemporary Malaysia.